When I finished work last evening I came down to have dinner with my wife and CNN news was on the background.  My wife said, “Don’t expect any good news, there isn’t any”. 

 

The current global situation is both awful and anxiety inducing.  Our clients are feeling it and talking about it. 

There’s a particular kind of anxiety that creeps into business when the headlines turn geopolitical.

 

The only known known is that you don’t quite know what will happen, but you do know something will.

 

For people as a service agencies, the fear isn’t on oil prices or good’s tied to shipping routes; it’s much closer to home:

 

• Will our clients pause projects?
• Will our sales pipeline slow?
• Will our retainer clients cancel or pause?
• Will our costs creep up while revenue dilutes?

 

The uncomfortable truth is this: You don’t need a global crisis to expose weak cash flow.

But a global crisis will accelerate it.

 

So your question today shouldn’t be What’s going to happen?.  It’s: How does my business behave when pressure is applied?”

The Companies That Struggle Don’t See It Coming Late

 

They see it, but don’t translate it.

 

In almost every downturn or shock, the pattern is the same:

 

• First the pipeline slows
• Then signoff decisions take longer
• Then project scope and size shrinks
• Then cash arrives later

 

The absolute necessity here is to convert the signals into cash decisions fast enough.

 

Many of our clients are asking what they should today in the current climate.  To assist we’ve prepared the following priority questions.  If you’re running a creative agency right now, these are the questions that matter — not forecasts, not opinions, just the operational reality.

 

10 Questions That Will Tell You the Truth About Your Business

 

Q1. How much of our revenue is “nice to have” vs “must have”?

 

If your customers themselves are under pressure, outsourced services often get cut before direct revenue-generating work.  If more than half your work is deemed discretionary by your customers, you are exposed.

 

Q2. How reliant are we on a small number of clients?

 

Losing one client shouldn’t feel like losing the business.  If your top 3 clients make up more than 70% of revenue, you have concentration risk and the residual portfolio is insufficient to support your running costs.

 

Q3. How easily can clients pause or walk away?

 

Contracts matter more in uncertain times than good relationships.  If most of your revenue is project-based or informal, expect volatility and short term shocks.

 

Q4. What does a realistic downside actually look like?

 

This is not to induce panic or stick your head in the sand with over optimistic views. Be honest.

 

• What happens if revenue drops 25%?
• What happens if it drops 40%?

 

If you don’t know, you’re not planning, you’re hoping.

 

Q5. How many months of cash runway do we truly have?

 

Time is your only real protection. Look at the reality, strip out optimism and unsecured revenue from your pipeline. What does this say?

 

Q6. How fixed is our cost base?

 

Agencies often believe they are highly flexible, until revenue drops.  If most of your costs are locked into salaries, you have limited room to manoeuvre in the short term.

 

Q7. What early warning signs are we already seeing?

 

Be really honest with yourself here.

 

• Slower client responses
• Budget hesitations
• Smaller scopes

 

These are not coincidences. They are the warning signals.

 

Q8. Can we clearly justify our pricing right now?

 

“Great service”  is not enough in a cost-sensitive environment.  If you can’t tie your work to your customer’s revenue, retention, or efficiency expect pressure.

 

Q9. What happens if our costs increase by 10–20%?

 

Right now who knows what inflationary pressure is coming, so they might.  If you can’t pass that on, your profit margins will take the hit directly.

 

Q10. Do we actually have a plan — or just good intentions?

 

2026 will continue to be a fast-moving environment, so speed will always beat perfection.

 

• If you had to act next week, are you clear today on what you would cut?
• What would you protect?
• What would you push?

 

You have to know now, or you’ll react too late.

 

This Isn’t About Fear. It’s About Response Time.

 

My experience of the Covid-19 lockdown in 2020 is that the businesses that navigate periods like this well don’t predict the future better.  They simply:

 

• See risk earlier
• Translate it faster
• Act sooner

 

Most importantly: They understand their cash flow under pressure, before the pressure arrives.

 

A Simple Exercise

 

Take one hour.

 

Assume:

 

• Revenue drops by 25%
• All clients start to delay payments by 2 weeks

 

Now ask: What impact does this have on our cash and when does this become a problem?

 

Most likely answer: in 4-8 weeks, not in 12 months.

 

Because that’s where most businesses get caught.

 

Final Thought

 

We do not need to become a geopolitical expert. 

 

You don’t need to be an expert on predicting commodity and stock markets.

 

You don’t need to guess what the market will do next.

 

What you need to answer is this:  If things tighten, how quickly does my business feel it — and what do I do next?

 

In moments like this, clarity is not a luxury.  It’s your survival tool.

 

If you want help turning these questions into a live cash flow model and scenario plan for your business, that’s exactly the work I’m doing with clients right now.

 

Just reply and we’ll map it out together.

 

The hardest part is rarely solving these things. It’s seeing them properly in the first place.

If you want to step through that view in a structured way, there’s a short assessment here → Scenario Planning Questions